Liminal Investment Advisory

Views on finance and economics [South Africa and the ROW]

Friday, January 4, 2013

Cost to GDP of the 2013 Fiscal Cliff Deal

Here is what I've come across so far in terms of what the deal will do to US growth in 2013:

Feroli (JPM) says growth will be hit by 1%
Rosenberg (Gluskin Sheff) thinks it will be 1.5%
Goldman Sachs says 1.3%
Kit Juckes (SocGen) oddly sees the deal adding 0.5% to GDP. Perhaps this is from a baseline of a fiscal cliff occurring.

In summary, US GDP should struggle in 2013, coming in around 1.0% - 1.5%.

UPDATE: Chicago Fed Charles Evans sees US growth at 2.5% for 2013 


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