Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Highs to be taken out

Although markets swing around, lurching high and low, I feel they are still mostly efficient, in the sense that at any given moment, there are equal bull and bear cases to be made, and these offsetting opinions creates trades in securities, the trillions we see everyday. Essentially, there is ALWAYS a reason to be bullish or bearish, hence the market is always at an equilibrium of sorts. I could list a 100 reason to be bearish, or 100 reasons to be bullish. The task of a financial analyst is to sift through those multitudinous variant opinions, and isolate the essence to instruct trading decisions. I have read a lot recently, and although I wish (generally in life) to be an original thinker, in this instance I need to 'borrow' a persuasive graph from Macquarie:

If the above graph is correct, there is much more to go i.t.o. economic activity. I find this graph far more persuasive than "The Fed Model", PE bands, etc. And if the scenario as suggested by the graph plays out, the economic strength would result in markets making new highs.

No comments: