Marc Faber:
Likes USTs (believes US growth is overstated)
Short Russell 2000 (massive outperformance of small caps)
Short Mexico
Not keen on Singapore REITs
Ray Dalio
Thinks US is in a period similar to 2004 or 2006, low growth boring years.
Think Southern Europe woes will continue for some time
Think China is a bubble, but its not clear how the adjustment will take place
Subscribes to a 'new normal' perspective
Foresees a EM crisis, and think India is positioned worst.
Kynikos shorting themes:
boom-that-goes-bust (subprime crisis, anything credit driven)
consumer fads (Crocs)
aggressive accounting (Enron)
structurally challenged businesses (CAT)
stock buybacks (usually a sign of weakness, e.g. IBM, Oracle, Honeywell)
Fred Goodwin (now State Street, previously Mr Prop at Lehman)
US to have recession in mid-2014
Thesis: recessions occur in cycles of every 5 years. We're due now
Also, fiscal tightening of 1.75% drag. 2/3rds is tax increases, 1/3rd is decrease in spending
Not clear how big the -multiplier on tax increases could be. Perhaps 2x-3x
The only reason US is doing ok is due to dissaving. Once savings pattern normalises, consumption will slow down
2013 Notable Trades:
Glenview healthcare stock picks
Paul Tudor Jones buying Gold puts
Tepper buying SPX calls after Sep pullback in stocks
Soros shorting JPY
Owl Creek going long Nikkei
Paulson buying insurers, real estate and banks
Likes USTs (believes US growth is overstated)
Short Russell 2000 (massive outperformance of small caps)
Short Mexico
Not keen on Singapore REITs
Ray Dalio
Thinks US is in a period similar to 2004 or 2006, low growth boring years.
Think Southern Europe woes will continue for some time
Think China is a bubble, but its not clear how the adjustment will take place
Subscribes to a 'new normal' perspective
Foresees a EM crisis, and think India is positioned worst.
Kynikos shorting themes:
boom-that-goes-bust (subprime crisis, anything credit driven)
consumer fads (Crocs)
aggressive accounting (Enron)
structurally challenged businesses (CAT)
stock buybacks (usually a sign of weakness, e.g. IBM, Oracle, Honeywell)
Fred Goodwin (now State Street, previously Mr Prop at Lehman)
US to have recession in mid-2014
Thesis: recessions occur in cycles of every 5 years. We're due now
Also, fiscal tightening of 1.75% drag. 2/3rds is tax increases, 1/3rd is decrease in spending
Not clear how big the -multiplier on tax increases could be. Perhaps 2x-3x
The only reason US is doing ok is due to dissaving. Once savings pattern normalises, consumption will slow down
2013 Notable Trades:
Glenview healthcare stock picks
Paul Tudor Jones buying Gold puts
Tepper buying SPX calls after Sep pullback in stocks
Soros shorting JPY
Owl Creek going long Nikkei
Paulson buying insurers, real estate and banks
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