Odey:
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/odey-stock-crash/
"$2.5 billion Odey Asset Management OEI MAC fund was down 17 percent halfway through October 30 and -23.7 percent year to date. The causation for the pain is a long / short ratio that is significantly leveraged short, an unusual position when compared to the mean average long / short equity hedge fund strategy."
"“Stan Druckenmiller stunned investors in New York recently by announcing that he thought we were already in a bear market for equities,” Odey says, ominously pointing to a market near record highs. “I suspect people will look back on this time and see it as the last opportunity to get out.”"
"Before a crash, “the first thing that goes is a market is breadth, which narrows,” he told investors on a recent podcast to investors. Market breadth, measuring the number of advancing and declining stocks, fell under 30 on Aug 21, indicating more names were negative than positive. “We broke last Sept lows,” he said, indicating trouble for the market.
“On 21st August 2015, the Dow Jones, the FTSE and the global market index gave the first sell signal since 2007 and confirmed that we are now in a bear market,” he wrote in a September monthly report to investors. The resulting rally since the downturn reflects just how bearish participants were on that day. “Only 16% of shares were still in a bull market, down from 48% only a month and a half earlier.”"
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/odey-stock-crash/
"$2.5 billion Odey Asset Management OEI MAC fund was down 17 percent halfway through October 30 and -23.7 percent year to date. The causation for the pain is a long / short ratio that is significantly leveraged short, an unusual position when compared to the mean average long / short equity hedge fund strategy."
"“Stan Druckenmiller stunned investors in New York recently by announcing that he thought we were already in a bear market for equities,” Odey says, ominously pointing to a market near record highs. “I suspect people will look back on this time and see it as the last opportunity to get out.”"
"Before a crash, “the first thing that goes is a market is breadth, which narrows,” he told investors on a recent podcast to investors. Market breadth, measuring the number of advancing and declining stocks, fell under 30 on Aug 21, indicating more names were negative than positive. “We broke last Sept lows,” he said, indicating trouble for the market.
“On 21st August 2015, the Dow Jones, the FTSE and the global market index gave the first sell signal since 2007 and confirmed that we are now in a bear market,” he wrote in a September monthly report to investors. The resulting rally since the downturn reflects just how bearish participants were on that day. “Only 16% of shares were still in a bull market, down from 48% only a month and a half earlier.”"
"China will be the catalyst for the market downturn. China has run out of policy options."
"When would we buy the S&P? At 10x EBIT or 1452"
"We expect the Yuan to fall by 30%"
"Odey says that while the 2008 crisis was solved by low interest rates ultimately, “this downturn will only be solved by capacity getting written off.” This is a point in the very distant future. In the near term he recommends watching corporate credit spreads reveal that there is a credit tightening taking place, “which is wholly not what the central banks want to happen.”"
- Argument isn't persuasive. Merely says that monetary policy has been overly accommodative, which is resulting in poor capital allocation, and will chaos as the easing is withdrawn.
- Argument isn't persuasive. Merely says that monetary policy has been overly accommodative, which is resulting in poor capital allocation, and will chaos as the easing is withdrawn.
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